USDCAD has recently broken a key long-term trendline which, as we all know, is very key for a change of trend.
It’s currently returned to the trendline area as a potential opportunity to get in short.
However, and this is important – there’s little to support this retracement other than an intraday fib level. We have major S/R at 1.3888 and support around 1.3200. Not only that, but the recent EW counts suggest there’s further upside. Could we be in for the top of the range at 1.388?
For us to get in short, we would want to see further confirmation/validation. At the moment, the break and retest of the trendline is the only thing supporting a short position in our discretionary model.
Update 9 January 2026
After strong volume coming off 1.3650, we’ve amended the trendline. USDCAD now appears to be at an interesting resistance level. If US Dollar strength picks up/continues, then we will break through this level but, if not, there could be an opportunity for a shorter-term short.
Update 22-Jan
Started to roll-over, but not enough momentum/conviction to take a trade.
Update 27-Jan
Missed the trade, placing in archive.
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